Guns, Gangs and Drugs

Guns, Gangs, and Drugs: StatsCan research suggests street crime problem will be agitated by proposed
crime reduction tactics
By Keetah Bryant

There is no argument that gun violence, gangs, and drug-related crimes have been on the rise in Canada’s
major cities. The various interpretations of crime statistics abound in recent media reports, but what everyone
seems to agree on is that violent crime and illegal gunplay are having a less than favourable impact on the lives of
all Canadians. This is precisely why crime and punishment have become major topics of the recent election
campaigns. Quick to lay the blame in the largely publicized death of Jane Creba, citizens are blaming a lax
criminal justice system, while politicians are quick to allay their fears with promises of beefed up police forces and
amendments to sentencing that some have termed Draconian.
It’s only natural in a time of grief and vulnerability to abandon logic, but it’s time to step back from these
emotionally motivated responses to crime and return to a more analytical approach on the issue of gangs, drugs,
and guns in Canada’s major cities.
To understand the problem, we need to understand the relationship between ice cream and violent crime.
Yes, that’s right. Ice cream. It seems that as ice creams sales go up nationally, the incidence of violent crime also
increases. Theses two statistics are positively correlated. From this fact, however, it does not logically follow that
a crack-down on ice cream sales would reduce the overall rate of violent crime across the country. Some other
factor is obviously influencing both phenomenon. In science, this is called the third variable.
The same can be said of gun violence, gangs, and drugs. By all indications, these social ills are on a
disturbing upward trend, that is, they are positively correlated. However, from this fact, it does not logically follow
that the prevalence of drugs and gangs are the causational factors in an increased prevalence of gun-related crime.
Perhaps, like ice cream consumption, there is an unconsidered third variable, or set of variables, that is driving up
the occurrence of all these phenomenon.
Is Punishment an Effective Means of Crime Control?
The existence of this third variable is not up for debate, which will be illustrated in later sections, but the
efficacy of harsh punishment and Draconian police tactics is. Newly suggested preventative and punitive
measures, aimed at restoring public faith in the criminal justice system, are currently being tossed around like vote
bait to a desperate Canadian public, one that has recently been steeped in fear and a feeling of vulnerability. If
enacted, such drastic changes in policy could divert countless valuable tax dollars into crime prevention strategies
that much research has indicated, are prone to failure. In fact, these very methods may even serve to exacerbate
the crime rate by further stressing public programs and resources in our highly populated urban centers.
Does punishment work? Most of us believe that it does, which is why we have come to employ such
methods in dealing with our children in schools, our pets at home, and our employees at work. Stuart Henry, PhD,
of Wayne University sees this belief in punishment as being based in two primary philosophies: (a) criminals
cannot commit crime while they are locked up, and (b) people who commit crimes deserve to be punished. In
reality, our belief in punishment has nothing to do with whether it really works in reducing the actual prevalence
rates of criminal activity. This begs the question: does incarceration of criminals decrease the probability of them
and their cohorts committing crimes in the future?
Studies indicate that some types of mild punishment can be effective in altering behavior patterns in both
human beings and animals. However, in order to be effective, punishment must be administered after each offence
with little time lapse between the offence and the application of the punishment. The effectiveness of this type of
mild punishment increases when pro-social behaviors demonstrated by the offender are positively reinforced.
What does this means in relation to our criminal justice system? In order for punishment to be effective, there
must be a high certainty of getting apprehended, which would require a highly present police force. Lastly, this
swift administration of justice is most effective if moderate levels of punishment are maintained.
Why moderate punishment? Various studies have demonstrated that severe punishment often leads to
avoidance or escape on the part of the offender. This can lead to a proliferation of more sophisticated and less
traceable crimes, as we have seen with identity theft. Harsh punishment can also foster aggressive behavior in
targeted offenders and their generalized social counterparts, who may not even be involved in the criminal justice
system.
Current moderate punishment applications are ineffective
So why isn’t it working? There seems to be a general consensus among Canadians that most current
penalties for crime are rather lenient. The question then becomes: why do these criminals keep re-offending if
moderate punishment is said to be so effective? Too answer this, more questions need to be asked, primarily about
the nature of given crimes, and, the socioeconomic features of the offending population.
These three indices of social degradation - guns, gangs, and drugs - are the central focus of this new,
tough stance on crime, and are inarguably related. According to an interpretive summary crime report, released by
the provincial government, from 1994 to 2004, 72% of all drug crimes in this province were marijuana-related.
Ian Mulgrew, a columnist of the Vancouver Sun, has recently been able to publish an entire book on this illegal yet
burgeoning six billion dollar industry. It’s not really a surprise that this might be the enterprise of choice for
today’s criminals who are a little less than Internet savvy, but are educated enough to assess risks, costs, and
benefits when developing an economic strategy for life in Canada.
Criminal Profiling
So who are these people, and why are they risking jail time and sometimes their lives in gang warfare to
have a stake in this growing underground industry, or any other criminal enterprise? To answer this question and
others that policy-makers in our country might have, the Canadian Center for Justice Statistics published a series of
profile reports in June of 2001. One of these ten reports examines “Visible Minorities in Canada”. Also of interest
are the report titles “Canadians with Low Incomes” and “Immigrants in Canada”. All these reports can be viewed
in full at www.statscan.ca. According to this statistical branch of federal government, as indicated by their chosen
areas of research, income levels, immigration, and visible minority status are all related to crime in Canada. These
reports, based primarily on the most recent census data, indicate that the visible minority presence in Canada has
risen from six percent in 1981, to the current rate of 11%; seven out of ten of these visible minorities are
immigrants. Most of these new citizens choose to make Ontario or British Columbia their home, and in 1996,
94% of all visible minorities lived in one of Canada’s major cities. This sector of the population is younger on
average than the rest of the Canadian populous, and most of them are living with family members - comparatively
few people of a visible minority live alone. They are also more likely to be university educated than the rest of the
Canadian population, of whom about 9% have completed a university program, as opposed to 19% of all visible
minorities. It also seems that a larger percentage of the visible minority population attends school, but somehow,
they are generally less likely than other Canadians to be employed. Only 65% of visible minority males were
employed in 1996, versus 74 % of the rest of Canadian males, aged 16-64. The approximate 10% disparity in
employment rates remains the same for the women.
Working less may mean earning less as well. Even though the educational qualifications of this cohort
are relatively high, their incomes are comparatively low. A visible minority person makes an average of $6000 less
per year than the rest of the Canadian population. In fact, if you are a visible minority, you are nearly twice as
likely as your neighbor to live in poverty, because 36% of the visible minority population in Canada lives below
the poverty level. It is interesting to note that in the United States, whose minority population shares many like
economic circumstances with it’s cohort in Canada, the prison population is a highly disproportionate visible
minority group. Here in Canada, Aboriginals and other visible minorities are highly disproportionate members of
our own prison system.
The changing face of the CMA (census metropolitan area)
A study released by Statistics Canada in June of 2005 states that crime rates generally declined throughout
the 1990’s. In fact “from 1993 to 2000, the overall rate of violent crime dropped by 9%”. The major conclusion
reached by this study is that “periods of inflation appear to be associated with financially-motivated crime” and
“throughout the 90’s when inflation rates were relatively stable, crime rates declined.” Good financial times equals
less crime, according to this study. But what if one particular group of people in Canada were constantly under
financial duress? Could that have anything to do with the increased prevalence of crime among a certain
demographic?
Andrew Heisz, of the Business and Labour Market Analysis Division of Statistics Canada issued a report
in September of 2005 to expose some key insights into the trends and conditions that have been observed in
Canada’s major cities. This of course, was done using a variety of statistics on the nation’s cities, using census
data. He begins the report by announcing that growth in the Canadian population, by 55% (1.6 million people)
between 1981 and 2001 was largely due to immigration, and this “growth...caused the CMA’s boundary to expand,
[and has] formed challenges for the delivery services, and placed strain on the labour market.”
This report is divided into a ‘top ten list’ of insights, a majority of which deal with some form of
inequality or fundamental economic transformation within Canada’s CMA’s. One such transformation involves a
rise in the services economy, coupled with a complete decline in manufacturing in some areas, like Toronto and
Vancouver. This shift from manufacturing to services primarily benefits workers with more education.
Immigrants in the CMA’s
Most newly arrived immigrants choose their place of residence based on the fact that family and friends
will be living close by. In Vancouver, 64% of the entire population were first or second generation immigrants in
2001. In Toronto, indications are much the same, and projections suggest that this number is on the rise. It is
projected that in 2017, the percentage of immigrant population in Vancouver and Toronto will be 44% and 49%
respectively - that’s nearly half the total population.
Heisz concludes the section of the report focused on growth by saying, “Rapid population growth because
of immigration may place stress on the provisions of public services, such as education, and public transit.”
Statistics Canada has released an independent report covering this topic specifically (89-613-MIE-No.3).
The economics of immigration
“A substantial body of research has shown that the economic welfare of immigrants deteriorated over the
1980’s and 1990’s”. This is the opening line of the labour market analysis, which also points to a downward trend
towards poor outcomes for all new labour market entrants. The report states that “in Toronto and Vancouver, the
employment rate fell substantially only among recent immigrants...” in major cities between 1981 to 2001.
Many immigrants find work only on a part-time basis, or for part of the year. Even if they have a
university degree, immigrants are much more likely than their Canadian-born friends to be working in a job that
requires no formal education. In fact, 31% of recent immigrants with a university degree find themselves
employed in jobs requiring a low level of skill, and this is even more likely if they are female. Between 1995 and
1998, male immigrants earned on average 60% less than comparable Canadian-born workers in their first years
working in Canada.
All of these statistics point to a rather obvious and readily demonstrable increasing disparity among
Canadian families. During the 1990’s, incomes fell for most lower income families, and rose for most
higher-income families in a majority of Canadian cities. Low-income rates, as previously mentioned, are higher
among visible minorities and immigrants, Aboriginal people, and single parent families. Because of this, they are
disproportionately represented among the working poor. On average, the people in these groups have incomes less
than half that of the average Canadian. Conversely, the gap between rich and poor neighborhoods is also growing.
In Toronto, over the past 20 years, the average family income in the poorest neighborhoods rose only 0.2%, while
their richest neighbors enjoyed a 23% increase in annual income. Even though these poor neighborhoods exist,
according to 2001 data, over 33% of city dwellers are renting homes they can’t afford.
Perhaps the picture gets too bleak, perhaps the funding runs dry. Whatever the reason, the last few pages
of the report offer less researched effects in the CMA’s, such as disparities in the administration of health needs,
commuting and transportation obstacles, as well as environmental and infrastructure issues. The full report
entitled “Ten Things to Know About Canadian Metropolitan Areas...” can be viewed online at www.statcan.ca.
The Facts
It’s no secret that the crime stories of recent times have focused on Indo-Canadian gangs, and the black
street gangs in Toronto. When determining the opinion of Canadians on various crime prevention measures, the
Ipsos-Reid pollsters even made the suggestion of targeting certain ethnic groups for possible civil liberty
restrictions in the name of proactive crime prevention. Over 30% of those polled agreed with enactment of such
measures, if necessary. So it would be nothing new to say that we as a country see gangs, drugs, guns, and certain
ethnic groups as all being interrelated. It would be naive to suggest otherwise, given the ethnic and socioeconomic
composition of our institutionalized population. That being noted, why do these criminals do what they do? Can
anything be assessed from the general statistical position these various ethnic groups occupy within our country?
What do these data suggest?
When planning strategies to effectively deal with crime in our large metropolitan centers, the statistics on
these social infractions need to be consulted, and the recommendations made by paid government researchers need
to be heeded. Canada does not need another Jane Creba, caught in the crossfire of something it seems even her
government does not have the insight to understand. What Canada needs is an accurate understanding of the
context behind the crime, a complete picture of the average Canadian criminal.
From this statistical exploration, it can be understood that most criminals are young minority men, whose
cohort have a better chance of possessing a post-secondary education than the average Canadian. Even if they
don’t have an education, more visible minorities are pursuing an education than the rest of the Canadian
population. These young men and women, although highly capable, face barriers in securing employment. If and
when they are able to find a job, it is usually one which requires few of their educational skills and pays very little
in comparison. The employment available can be spotty, often part time or only for certain parts of the year. A
large portion of minority families live below the poverty level because of these challenges, and according to
government reports, it’s only going to get worse. With inflation and populations on the rise, and income levels
that have remained stagnant for the past twenty years, visible minorities in Canada are facing an even tougher
battle. Many find it difficult to support their families, their wives often earning less than they do. Difficulties in
obtaining adequate child care or supervision for older children is common. The expense of out-of-school-care and
extracurricular activities often cannot be met, leaving children to fend for themselves, sometimes adopting a gang
as a surrogate family. Many new immigrants and visible minorities attend post-secondary schools to improve their
chances of economic success, but graduate only with debt and a job that can’t pay the bills.
Punishment is only effective if potentially offensive behaviors are warded off by positive reinforcement,
when subjects behave in a prosocial manner. People need to reap their just rewards when they follow the socially
prescribed course of action. Judging by the economic situation of a large portion of visible minorities in Canada,
and given their high levels average of education, there is clearly a lack of any real positive reinforcement for the
majority of them who attempt to engage in prosocial behavior.
These facts should be cause for concern for all Canadians. The ramifications of a population explosion on
the delivery of essential services could prove to be brutal. British Columbians have already dealt with the
consequences of dissatisfied teachers, in part due to overcrowded classrooms, and we Canadians have heard a lot
about the current stresses on our health care system causing unimaginable waits for those in need of surgery. In
order for sustained and stable economic growth to continue here in Canada, there must be a corresponding growth
in our population. Without large numbers of immigrants entering into our country, economic growth would not be
possible; the rate of population growth would become insufficient to sustain the economy.
Are we as Canadians prepared to deal with the undeniable consequences of our fast-paced economic
growth in urban centers?
The Future
Potential leaders of tomorrow ought to be listening. Voters in Canada need to be educated when they
make their choice on election day. Suggestions of costly prison terms and more police may be a quick and easy
political manoeuvre under the bright of the media lights, and under the pressure to prevent more innocent deaths,
but all the options and their consequences must be evaluated. Could money used to incarcerate people be used
more effectively?
Government reports project that in 2017, nearly half the population in our major city centers will consist
of immigrants. Add to that the already existing Canadian citizens that happen to be visible minorities, and the face
of the population is in for a drastic change. The visible minority is becoming the visible majority. According to the
statistical projections, there will be more poor, educated, visible minority people than ever before in this country.
By that time, as the numbers suggest, they should be even more impoverished as a group than they are now, facing
ever-growing obstacles in obtaining perhaps even basic health care and education.
If crime control strategies continue in the direction they’ve been taking, the inevitable shift in population
constitution to a comparatively poor visible majority might prove to be more of a challenge than anyone might
have originally anticipated.. Best to ban those handguns now, or it might start to look like a revolution.